April 10, 2026
There it is – that’s how much more you’re paying for all the things you need thanks to this war with Iran. And this – this is just the beginning.
Oh and you feel really crappy about this economy…like the crappiest you’ve felt since they started keeping track of how crappy you feel. Worse than during the Viet Nam war? Yep. Worse than the great recession? Yes. Worse than the height of covid? Also yes. None of that is my opinion – that is based on two brand new economic reports that are painting a rough picture. So before I talk about your feelings – let’s talk about your wallet’s feelings..
Starting with today’s inflation report. The consumer price index report for the month of March found every single thing we buy, eat, use and consume is 3.3% more expensive than it was in March of last year. That’s almost a full percentage point (Feb 2026 2.4%) (+0.9%) higher than it was in February of 2026. That is absolutely the highest inflation reading we’ve seen in President Trump’s second term and fun fact, it’s the highest reading Trump has ever had when you include his first term. In case it’s not clear – this dramatic increase in prices is mostly because of the war with Iran…which is very much still going on – so these increases are likely not going to stop. The increase in prices between February and March of this year was the fastest increase in inflation since 2022.
No surprise – the vast majority of the inflation increase in march came from gas prices. Which we know is directly tied to the war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to the bureau of labor statistics gasoline prices increased 21.2% between February and March of 2026 – and when you compare it to last year, gas prices are up 18.9%. Don’t forget the Strait is still closed. These numbers are from March – we can expect this number or an even higher number next month when the April report comes out. As a side note to gasoline – jet fuel is also being blocked – so the report found airline fares are up 14.9%/2.7%…just in time for you to book your summer travel.
Now – when it comes to food – the CPI found overall food prices in March are 2.7% higher than they were last year but according to the report, when you look at food between February and March of this year it says there was no change. The White House says this is good news – they say the high gas prices have not seeped into the cost of goods. But economist say – just you wait – you’ll probably see it next month.
And the cost for shelter is up again. The report says it’s up 3% year over year (3%/0.3%)
Lastly a want to talk about your feelings because you’ve been saying the economic vibes are way off for a while and now there are some facts to prove it. The consumer sentiment report was also released this morning – it literally measures how you feel about the economy – how confident you are in the economy and how optimistic you feel about your own personal finances. It found the lowest consumer sentiment since the university of Michigan started keeping track in the 1950s. Things really dropped off in April specifically because of this war. The report says you feel almost 11% worse about your personal finances between march and April because of higher prices and weaker asset values.
Look – with inflation shooting up and the strong jobs report we just saw last week – there is a chance the federal reserve could start thinking about increasing interest rates again. They will be meeting at the end of this month and economists are predicting they’ll hold rates steady for now – but if these inflation and jobs reports keep following these trajectories – that may change.
March CPI here.
April consumer sentiment report here.
