February 17, 2026
DOGE was supposed to save us trillions of dollars and the Big Beautiful Bill was going to cut our debt and tariffs were going to offset all the spending President Trump wanted to do. At least—that’s what we were all told… well – according to the latest estimate from the non-partisan congressional budget office not only is none of that happening but our budget deficit is going to get worse.
Ok – so let’s talk about these new numbers. The CBO regularly releases estimates and projections for the US economy, the gross domestic product – GDP — the budget deficit and the debt. Just so we’re clear on the terminology – a deficit happens when the US government spends more money than it brings in. The deficit is calculated every year. So if for example the government spent $1 million, but it only brought in $300,000 in revenue then that year’s budget deficit would be $700,000. So the government spent $700,000 than it brought in. Then the US government debt is the total of all the deficits over time.
Now that we got that straight– according to the Congressional Budget Office the deficit at the end of the 2026 fiscal year – which is President Trump’s first full fiscal year – where his policies are 100% controlling the spending – that deficit is projected to be $1.853 trillion. That’s compared to the 2025 deficit which was $1.78 trillion. Yes new 2026 number takes into account the big beautiful bill spending, the revenue generated from Trump’s tariffs, the GDP growth and all the spending President Trump is doing to step up his immigration enforcement across the country. The CBO projects that between now and 2035 — Trump’s higher tariffs will reduce the deficit by $3 trillion but the big beautiful bill will increased the deficit by $4.7 trillion through 2035 and the increased immigration crackdown increased that deficit by $500 billion. And the thing is the big beautiful bill cut the tax revenue the US government would have received from big businesses and from individuals like you and me so if the US government isn’t getting that money but then keeps spending – that’s how you get the deficit. The CBO expects this deficit is going to increase just a little bit in fiscal year 2027 ($1.887 t) but then if we stay on this track it’s going to explode in 10 years to $3.115 trillion!
So how is the Trump administration responding to these numbers? Well – of course they say these numbers are flawed because they say the CBO is not properly estimating the huge economic boom the white house expects as a result of President Trump’s policies. The White House says that economic boom is going to bring down that deficit number. The CBO says that – yeah – they did consider the economic growth that’s expected to happen under Trump’s policies but their projections of that growth are much lower than what the White House says. The CBO expects GDP growth for the US economy to be about 2.2% in fiscal year 2026 – but the Trump administration says the growth is going to be between 3 and 4% and even suggest that we’re going to see 6% growth in the first quarter of 2026.
We’ll see who is right on those numbers in April when the Q1 data comes out.
Ok – so why should this matter to you? Well – first of all – it’s your money. But even if that doesn’t bother you right now – it should because in a few years it is going to impact you. How?
Well – when all these deficits pile up year after year…you get this…the US debt—which is currently sitting at $38.6 trillion. The interest costs alone to pay that debt are crippling. Think about your own credit card – if you let your debt sit there and don’t pay it off – you keep paying crazy amounts of interest on it right? And it feels like you’re wasting all that money on the interest. Same with the US government — except the CBO is projecting that we are going to be paying $1 trillion in just interest. And when we’re stuck paying $1 trillion on interest– that’s money we can’t be spending on say social security payments or Medicare or Medicaid….and the problem is – those programs are getting more and more expensive to operate because of inflation – -and because more people are drawing from the program because people are living longer and using the benefits for more years than we originally anticipated. Which – if we stay on this track – will absolutely run out of money or at the very least – reduce the amount of benefit that *you* receive when it’s your turn. Does that make sense?
The bottom line – despite all the rhetoric from lawmakers and even the president – the debt and deficit are not decreasing. They’re getting bigger and more expensive.
Read the CBO report here.
