November 1, 2022
Midterm election day is just about a week away.
Wouldn’t you like to know which party will take over the House and the Senate? Look, no one can actually tell you that answer right now, but what we can do is look back at history and how other Presidents have fared in their first and second midterms. Let me give you a hint – there’s a pattern.
A midterm election is a usually a referendum on the President and his first two years in office. And it’s really common for the party in control to lose power after a midterm. President Biden’s approval numbers right now aren’t great. And if you look back, in most recent cases, you’ll see those numbers directly impact Midterms. Of course the President’s approval numbers aren’t the only factor in a midterm election but they seem to be at least—a fairly good indicator of final outcome.
Before I show you the very interesting numbers – I want to mention, I put together a 2022 midterm cheat sheet, it has all kinds of information to help you keep track of which party will control the house and senate next year. It tells you all about the key races that could flip the balance of power in congress, it has a glossary of important election terms you’re going to be hearing on tv and it has a score card to keep track of who wins in each house and senate race. It’s actually how I keep track of elections when reporting them on t-v…. If you want it – it’s linked.
Now back to the interesting midterm history. And pay attention to the patterns.
Let’s start with President Trump…after the 2016 election – Republicans controlled the White House, the House and the Senate.
By the midterms, Trump’s approval numbers were hovering between 38 – 40%. Republicans lost 40 seats in the House and Democrats took over but Republicans were able to hang on to the Senate.
President Barack Obama…after his first election in 2008 – Democrats controlled the White House, the House and the Senate.
By his first midterm in 2010, Obama’s approval numbers were about 45%. The Democrats lost 63 House seats and lost 6 Senate seats. Democrats lost control of the House but kept control the Senate.
In his second midterm in 2014 Obama’s approval numbers were down between 40 -42%, Democrats lost another 13 seats in the House and lost 9 seats in the Senate. Republicans kept the House and took the Senate.
After President George W Bush’s first election in 2000, Republicans controlled the White House, and the House and the Senate was 50-50 and switched control a few times.
Now Bush’s first midterm breaks the pattern…because in 2002, his approval numbers were about 63%. Must higher than anyone else on this list. That year, Republicans gained 8 seats in the House and gained one seat in the Senate. Republicans were able to retain control of the House and took over the Senate.
But in his second midterm in 2006, the pattern resumed. Bush’s poll numbers plummeted from 2002. They were between 33 and 38%. Republicans lost 30 seats in the House and lost 6 seats in the Senate. Democrats took over both the House and the Senate.
And then President Bill Clinton. After his first election in 1992 Democrats controlled the White House, the House and the Senate.
By his first midterm in 1994, Clinton’s poll numbers were about 46%. Democrats lost 54 seats in the House and 9 seats in the Senate. Republicans took over the House and the Senate. And his second midterm in 1998, Clinton’s poll numbers were 66% democrats gained 5 seats in the House and gained 0 seats in the Senate. Republicans were able to hang on to the House and the Senate
