March 16, 2026
This is going to be a big week for the SAVE America act. It’s going to be drawn out and it might get messy – but in the end will it actually pass and will the SAVE America act be the new reality for voters in this country? Let’s talk about it. And yes – we’re going to do some math here. Hang on…
First – as I have been reporting the SAVE America act is the bill that would require proof of citizenship…not only proof of identity – but also proof of citizenship before you’re allowed to vote. And generally – that means you need to present – in person — a passport or a birth certificate and if you’ve changed your name additional documentation of that name change to your state election officials to prove that you’re a United States citizen. No, your driver’s license does not count and in almost all cases your Real ID does not count either. The SAVE America act already narrowly passed in the House. But now – that it’s in the Senate – President Trump wants to add three additional items into the bill. He wants to add — a nationwide ban on mail in ballots except for those with disabilities, military members who are abroad and those who are out of the country during election time. He wants to add a ban on trans women in women’s sports and he wants to add ban on gender affirming care for minors.
So here’s what’s going to happen this week. First – you need to know – Senate majority leader John Thune and the majority of Senate Republicans at least at this point — are not going to get rid of the filibuster nor are they going to agree to reinstating the talking filibuster. So we can set that aside for now. We know — perhaps as soon as tomorrow — the senate will vote to proceed on the house version of the SAVE America act which includes proof of identity at the polls and proof of citizenship before you’re allowed to register to vote. Now this will not be the final vote – this is just the initial vote to move onto the next stage of the debate. To the math.
Right now – the senate is made up of 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats and Independents. This first vote that we could see tomorrow will only need a simple majority so – they need 51 votes. Republicans have 53 Senators, so they could easily pass this hurdle without any Democrats. But it’s possible that some Republicans will vote no at this stage. We know the Democrats and Independents are going to vote no so that means the Senate majority leader will need to get all 51 votes from here. He can lose only three Republican Senators and still get past this first hurdle. I say three because if up to three Republicans vote no – and it’s a 50-50 tie – then Vice President Vance will come in and break the tie and then we’ll move on to the next stage. By the way this is a real possibility and you should keep your eye on Senators, Thom Tillis, Lisa Murkowski and Mitch McConnell. They have all expressed some kind of hesitation on this bill in the past.
After that first procedural vote happens – normally – the next step is — the Senate majority leader would move to invoke what’s called “cloture”. That’s just a fancy word to mean ok – debate’s over – let’s vote to break the filibuster and then get a final vote on this bill. Of course to break the filibuster you need 60 votes. But we don’t think that Thune is going to invoke cloture – at this point –because he wants a big public showy debate – to show the president that he’s at least trying to get this bill passed.
And we’re going to see a deeeeeebbaattee. It could drag on for days and nights for maybe a week, 10 days, two weeks. It’s going to be a marathon. At some point we’re going to see amendment votes on the issues President Trump wants to add to the House version of the SAVE America act – the trans issues and the mail in ballot issue. That’s where the messy part comes in. The Republicans are going to force Democrats to take a public vote on these issues – which could be tough for some vulnerable Senate Democrats who are up for re-election in a few months. While it may be messy – in the end those amendments are going to fail – because they need 60 votes to pass and they don’t have ‘em. To get 60 votes it would require Senator Thune to get all 53 republicans to vote yes plus — at least 7 democrats to also vote yes. That’s not happening. So at some point – when Thune believes everyone has said their peace and the president has seen what he wants to see – Thune will invoke cloture and the SAVE America act – will need 60 votes to break the filibuster. Even the Republican Senate majority leader says he doesn’t have those votes. So at the end of this debate – whenever it may be – this bill will likely fail – because it won’t get to 60 votes. But you have to understand – this is politics –this is really about the show, the debate, the amendment votes all to prove to President Trump that republicans are trying to get this done.
