December 1, 2023
By now you’ve already heard that freshman Representative from New York George Santos was just expelled from Congress by a huge majority of Democrats and Republicans in the United States House of Representatives.
Yes that is historic in many ways but this video isn’t about that.
This video is going to explain why the removal of Santos is a problem – not just for the people of the 3rd district of New Hork – but it’s a big problem for all of us.
This expulsion is going to make every single bill that comes to the House floor for a vote – including issues like keeping the government open, funding for Israel and Ukraine, and addressing the border — even more difficult for the new House Speaker and possibly stalling out solutions to the problems that we’re all dealing with in our country.
And it all boils down to the math. The Republican House Speaker has a math problem – right now – and possibly another math problem in the long term too.
So we have to do a little math – but don’t worry, I’m going to walk you through it.
There are supposed to be 435 members of the United States House.
Prior to Santos’s expulsion there were 222 Republicans and 213 Democrats. Republicans are the majority. So if the House Speaker wanted to get a Republican priority bill through the chamber – he needed if everyone is present and voting to get 218 of his members to vote yes. Assuming that no Democrats would support it. That means the Speaker could only afford to lose 4 votes. That’s razor thin. It’s a tough place to be in for the majority party.
But – now the immediate problem with this Santos vacant seat is — this Republican majority goes down to 221. The number of votes needed to pass a bill remains 218 – if everyone is present and voting – however the Republicans can now only afford to lose three votes. Which makes things even harder for the Speaker.
Now – the long-term problem is – what is going to happen with this seat. Right now it’s considered vacant – but by law there has to be a special election in New York. The Governor has 10 days to set a date and that date has to be within 80 to 90 days. And the thing is – before Santos’s won the seat in the 3rd district of New York — the 20 years before that – the seat had been occupied by a Democrat. And since 2008 the New Yorkers in that district have overwhelmingly voted for a Democrat for President.
So it’s possible – Santos’s seat could flip blue in the special election which would then make it Republican 221 and Democrat 214.
All these numbers – regardless of which way you add or subtract equal more problems for House Republicans who are trying to exercise the power of their House majority.
