June 26, 2023
Vladimir Putin appears to still be in control of Russia after what he calls a “mutiny” over the weekend. Putin talked for about five minutes to his people tonight in a late-night televised address.
I’m sure you heard about what Putin calls an attempted coup in Russia over the weekend…but if you’re confused about what’s happening or why this is important to Americans– this video is a little long but it should help you out.
First you have to understand, since Putin invaded Ukraine he has been supplementing the Russian military with additional fighters from a for-hire mercenary group called Wagner. The leader of the Wagner group is Yevgeny Prigozhin– a guy who was a hot-dog vendor and then became an oligarch and the Wagner military leader. Over the last few months, Prigozhin has been very vocal on social media talking about the incompetence of Russian military leaders, complaining about the lack of equipment and support for his troops fighting in Ukraine and even said out loud that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was under false pretenses…basically saying Ukraine wasn’t attacking anyone. It was Russia being the aggressor. Obviously the Russian military doesn’t take to kindly to those criticisms and earlier this month–announced that Wagner soldiers would have to sign contracts with the Russian military – in effect dissolving Wagner and taking away Prigozhin’s power.
Well, on Friday night Prigozhin turned his Wagner troops on Russia after he says the Russian military killed about 30 of his men with a missile strike. That strike was all the rationale Prigozhin needed to leave Ukraine and march on Moscow with a column of armored vehicles. By Saturday morning he started taking over Russian military command centers in the southern part of the country. At first facing no resistance from Russian fighters but then Russian attack helicopters and jets started to threaten the Wagner movement. Wagner troops then shot down several helicopters and planes killing more than a dozen Russian pilots.
By Saturday night – as the Wagner troops were about two hours away from Moscow — out of nowhere – the rebellion was called off after a deal was made with Prigozhin and the President of Belarus – the neighbor of Russia and a very close friend of Vladimir Putin. Prigozhin said he accepted the deal to avoid prosecution and move to Belarus so he could continue the Wagner operations there.
After Saturday night Prigozhin disappeared and was said to be on his way to Belarus. Today he resurfaced in an 11-minute voice recording saying that his march on Moscow was not meant to be a coup or challenge Putin’s power – but instead it was a protest to save his troops from having to sign those contracts to join the Russian military. Putin obviously sees it differently.
So why does any of this matter to the United States? Well, there’s an official importance and a strategic importance. First officially—President Biden went on the record today and said the United States has no horse in this race. He said it’s not our concern and this is clearly an internal Russian problem between Putin and Prigozhin. He also categorically denied the United States or our allies had anything to do with this attempted coup. Though US intelligence agencies had an idea about what Prigozhin was up to. President Biden said over the weekend he coordinated with other western allies to stay on the same page and to stay out of it so Putin had no ability to blame the West.
What’s strategically important about what happened over the weekend is – this is the first real challenge to Putin’s leadership since he took over control of Russia back in 2000. The weekend’s events shows cracks in Putin’s tight grip on his people and exposed deep flaws in Russia’s security. And it may even suggest the “mighty” Russian military that Putin is always touting – might not live up to the hype after all.
Now – there’s still a lot that doesn’t make sense about this story. Why did Prigozhin really cut that deal? Why does Putin allow him to keep talking and gain support among the Russian people? Will he be allowed to live? And what’s going to happen to Wagner? Is this the beginning of the end for Putin’s leadership? And how will all this effect the war with Ukraine?
During his speech tonight, Putin didn’t name Prigozhin but said the organizers of this rebellion “betrayed” their country and will be “brought to justice.”
