December 5, 2024
The 2024 election has finally been decided yeah — numbers are in – and wow – is it going to be very tough for Republicans in the House of Representatives and especially difficult for House Speaker Mike Johnson in 2025.
You know what’s coming – to the math!
In the next congress which begins on January 3rd — the final party breakdown will be – Republicans will control 220 seats and Democrats will control 215. In the last congress the Republicans controlled 222 seats. So while Republicans technically will still hold the majority they will have fewer seats in 2025 than they have these last two years.
So why is that difficult?
Well – a few things. Let’s start with the basic math. In order to pass a piece of legislation – if everyone is present and voting – you would need 218 votes.
That means the if the Republicans want to pass a bill that contains all the things Republicans want – they will need to get 218 votes from their 220 members. That means they can only afford to lose two votes and still get that bill passed. That is extremely tight. Especially with a Republican caucus that can’t always agree on what the right path forward is. That’s what the speaker’s job is – to try and reign them all in.
Now you’re probably thinking…well, why wouldn’t any Democrats vote yes on this hypothetical bill and contribute to this 218 number? They might in some case but generally because it’s likely that hypothetical bill will not contain any priorities that democrats want – they’ll have no incentive to vote for it. That doesn’t’ make any sense. And also – when you’re in the majority – it’s your responsibility to make sure you are proposing a bill that has enough votes from at least your own party. That’s just how it works.
The other wrench for Republicans in 2025 is the fact that President elect Trump has nominated two House GOP members to join his cabinet…Representatives Elise Stefanik and Mike Waltz. Plus Representative Matt Gaetz – another Republican has resigned. That means if Stefanik and Waltz are confirmed — you can forget those two votes that Speaker Johnson has to play with. With those three gone – the math changes and if everyone is present and voting you’d need 217 votes and he only has 217 members. So he will have no margin for error. Zero. He will have to get every single member of the house republican conference to vote yes if he wants to get anything passed.
The special election in Florida for Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz won’t even happen until April and the special election for Elise Stefanik hasn’t even been set yet because she hasn’t officially resigned. Those seats are likely to stay red so – eventually those three votes will come back but until then, Speaker Johnson is going to have an uphill climb at an especially crucial time. All within the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency. This is when Republicans were counting on making the most progress in getting their priorities on budgets and immigration and taxes passed. But with no margin of error in the House, it looks like Democrats are going to have much more leverage than we all thought.
