February 26, 2025
There is a ton of misinformation out there about the budget plan the republicans passed last night. I’m going to run down the three big pieces of misinformation that you are probably seeing on the internet today in this video and I’m going to give you the facts.
First and foremost. Anyone who tells you what exactly is being cut or what tax breaks you’re going to get as a result of this budget resolution has no idea how this process works. No one knows exactly *how* republicans are going to accomplish the goals they outlined in the budget resolution that was passed in the house last night. Let me say that again for those in the back– no one knows exactly how republicans are going to accomplish the goals they outlined in the budget resolution passed in the house last night. What you’re hearing is a lot of speculation about what *may* be cut and will *likely* be cut, but there is no document that says Medicaid or food stamps programs shall be cut. Could there be cuts to those programs? Absolutely. Is that for sure? Not even close. On the flip side there’s also no document that says no tax on tips, no tax on overtime or no tax on social security shall included. Could they be included? Maybe. Is any of that for sure. Absolutely not. So let’s get that very clear from the beginning.
Two. The thing that passed last night is not a spending bill. It’s not even the law. What passed in the house last night is the republican’s budget resolution which is the first necessary step to unlock a process called reconciliation. That’s what republicans really want. They want reconciliation so they can make president Trump’s agenda the law without one single democrat vote. They are going to do this on their own. Not unusual. It’s happened before. But it’s always controversial. Budget resolutions are not legally binding. But what budget resolutions do is provide a blueprint – basically the big picture that house republicans want to accomplish to legally push through president Trump’s agenda.
In the case of this budget resolution that passed the house last night — the blueprint is this. $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, an increase to the debt ceiling of $4 trillion and up to $2 trillion in spending cuts. Now—that spending cut number is going to become very important to another piece of misinformation in a second so hang on. Let me finish the fact check on what the budget resolution is. The budget resolution needs to be agreed on by both the House *and* Senate. So far only the House has signed on to this budget resolution.
For the record — the sSnate has its own resolution that’s much different. So both chambers are going to have to agree on one resolution and once that happens each chamber crafts spending bills – those spending bills get voted on and *that’s* what ends up becoming the law. Those spending bills meet the goals outlined the budget resolution….reconciling the blue print with how they’re going make it happen. That whole thing is called the reconciliation process.
Here’s the thing about reconciliation. While there is a limit to the types of provisions that can be passed through reconciliation – once it clears that hurdle – the bill does not require 60 votes in the Senate. It just requires a simple majority – which becomes very appealing to senate republicans because they have 53 members. So they could easily pass their agenda with only republican votes and could even spare two republican votes. So the bottom line is – whatever republicans want to get done – if they all stick together, they can do it.
And that leads me to the number three piece of misinformation – which is what’s going to be cut and what tax breaks you’re going to get. Here’s the issue right now – the House and Senate have *very* different ideas about what the budget resolution should look like. The senate’s version is much smaller and passed a few weeks ago. The house version is much bigger and includes those $4.5 trillion in tax cuts. That is not included in the Senate version. Neither is the $4 trillion debt ceiling increase.
And here’s the issue with that tax cut line item in the House version– the fact is – President Trump made a lot of promises about taxes on the campaign trail. But all those promises cost money. President trump really wants to extend his 2017 tax cuts which are set to expire this year. Most experts say simply extending those existing tax cuts will cost about $4 trillion. If the budget resolution only allows for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, that only leaves $500 billion to accomplish all the other things Trump promised like no tax on tips, no tax on social security and no tax on overtime. The fact is – $500 billion is not enough to cover those costs. So it’s definitely possible that those things will not be included in the final spending bill. Maybe one of them will be included, but probably not all of them…at least not in this year’s spending bill.
On top of that – Senate republicans have a lot of questions about that $two trillion in spending cuts. How are they going to get to that number? See – all the budget resolution does is say to each House and Senate committee – when you are crafting your spending bills this is the dollar amount you either need to cut or spend in your budget. You figure it out. So the big one that has a lot of people concerned is the budget resolution requirement for the energy and commerce committee to cut $880 billion. This committee oversees health care spending – including programs like Medicaid. But it also oversees, consumer protection agencies, commerce, business, food and drug safety, air quality and environmental issues. The other big budget resolution requirement is for the agriculture committee to cut $230 billion. That committee oversees snap benefits – which used to be called food stamps. But that committee also oversees other agriculture programs for farmers, forestry and water conservation. As I reported – there is no piece of paper that says $880 billion must be cut from Medicaid or $230 billion must be cut from snap benefits…but the reality is those programs are among the biggest and cost the most so if lawmakers don’t cut from those programs where is the committee going to cut? The options become very limited and probably won’t add up to $880 billion and $230 billion. As recently as today – President Trump himself said Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security will not be touched. Lots of Senate republicans whose constituents rely on Medicaid agree and say the will not support cuts to that program. But it’s unclear how those things cannot be touched and more than a $1 trillion be cut. Those two things can’t be true at the same time. Something has to go. What that something is—we’ll have to wait and see.
Read the House Budget Resolution here.
