February 24, 2025
We are just two and a half weeks away from a government shutdown.
Great – let’s just add that to the pile of things to worry about.
Why are we here again? I know that’s always what you want to know. And the answer is always the same. Because congress. Won’t. Do. It’s. Job.
And I want to be clear here. This government shutdown scheduled for March 14th is in addition to the budget resolution deal I told you all about a few weeks ago. Remember that’s the big picture Republican plan to cut taxes by $4.5 trillion, offset by up to $2 trillion in spending cuts – probably including big cuts to Medicaid – and a $4 trillion increase to the debt ceiling. That budget resolution may get a vote in the house as early as tomorrow – but that’s totally separate from the pressing issue of this government shutdown that’s going to require its own vote.
And just hang on – I am going to explain to you what happens in a government shutdown in this video but first you have to understand how we got here. I have been telling you for years that the federal government’s fiscal year ends on September 30th. Congress’s one and only real job is to figure out how to fund the government. That means – by September 30th congress is supposed to pass a spending bill. Well – in September of 2024 when the fiscal year ended — congress decided not to do its job. Lawmakers did not pass a full spending bill and instead, democrats carried a republican continuing resolution. A continuing resolution is a band aid to keep the government open and functioning at status quo funding levels until a certain date. Technically that band aid is supposed to buy lawmakers more time to figure out the spending issues and pass a full spending bill. Well you guessed it – when the end of the c-r came in December of 2024 congress – again – did not pass a full spending plan and instead democrats carried yet another republican led continuing resolution. That one expires on March 14th. That’s how we get to the scheduled government shutdown on March 14th. To avoid a government shutdown this time– house republicans are suggesting that instead of passing a full spending bill, that congress instead should just passes another continuing resolution that lasts until the end of the fiscal year.
Yes – we go through this all the time. Yes it’s annoying. And yes – it’s true that in the end congress usually finds a way to avoid a government shutdown. But things in Washington – in case you haven’t noticed — are a little different than they have been in years. The vibes are different. But the margins in the House are still the same… slim. And the Senate still requires 60 votes to pass a bill like this so Republicans still need Democrat votes to pass this proposed CR and keep the government from shutting down. Well – at this point – hard line Republicans do not like continuing resolutions – they want deep spending cuts so – it appears that if Speaker Johnson wants to avoid a government shutdown, he’s going to need Democrats to carry his bill again just like they did in December and in September. But this time — it does not look like Democrats are in the mood to play ball. They’re pissed. They do not like what President Trump and Elon Musk are doing. They think the president and DOGE are overstepping their authority and in exchange for their vote to avoid a government shutdown they want to include language in the continuing resolution that puts some restrictions on how trump can spend money. Whether the republicans go for that – seems like a stretch. Whether democrats will back down – doesn’t seem likely. So we’ll have to wait and see who blinks first – especially as we get closer to that March 14th deadline.
So now let’s talk about what happens in a government shutdown. The severity of it depends on how long it lasts. If it’s only a few days – it’s not that big of a deal. But if it stretches for weeks or more than a month – now we have a problem. Remember – the only way the shutdown would stop is if congress passes a spending bill or a continuing resolution. In a full shutdown every non-essential government agency stops operating. The small business administration stops helping small businesses with loans and services, federal housing administration stops approving applications for home loans, the CDC and FDA have to cut back on their operations. Va customer service stops and new veterans disability claims stop getting approved. Of course, the national parks, national monuments and Smithsonian museums all close. On top of that — every single department and agency…think social security, defense, transportation all of it, have to classify their millions of employees as essential or non-essential. Those non-essential employees are put on unpaid furlough. Basically, they’re laid off. With no pay. Our military members have to show up to work but do not get paid. Same with air traffic controllers and TSA agents – in that past that has strained air travel. In the end – once the government is reopened they will get paid, but that’s not really helpful when the bills are still coming.
Now, if there’s a shutdown, your social security checks will continue but no new social security cards will be issued so no new accounts will be accepted…same for Medicare. Snap benefits are still funded but sending out those benefits gets harder. And your mail will still get delivered, because the post office is – as we’ve discussed before is self-funded.
You know who keeps getting paid? Congress. In a government shutdown, according to the constitution, they still get a paycheck. I’m sure you’re thinking lawmakers threaten a shutdown all the time do they actually have the nerve to do it? Oh yeah. We’ve had several government shutdowns.
The most recent was during the first trump presidency. For 35 days the US government was shutdown. That was also the longest single shutdown in modern history. But we’ve had lots of other shutdowns. In fact, most modern president Reagan, Clinton and Obama all had a least one shutdown where employees were furloughed.
