January 2, 2023
Who will be the next House Speaker?
We could know tomorrow…but wow…there’s going to be drama!
Like drama we haven’t seen in 100 years.
Here’s why…it all boils down to math.
After the midterm elections Republicans won 222 seats. Democrats have 213 seats.
Logic says, because they have the majority, the Speaker would be a Republican. And the front runner is Republican Representative Kevin McCarthy from California.
But all 435 House members get to vote for the person they want as the Speaker. To win the speakership – the candidate needs a simple majority. Which means, if all of them vote, to win, the candidate needs 218 votes. A member can also vote “present” which does not count as a vote for anyone and lowers the threshold for the number of votes a candidate needs.
Assuming – as is pretty normal – the Democrats will all vote no for McCarthy, that means McCarthy needs to get 218 of his own Republican members to vote yes for him. That means he can only afford to have four Republicans say no in order to get 218 votes.
Now this is where the drama comes in…at this point a minimum of five Republicans have said McCarthy is a hard pass for them. And without them McCarthy doesn’t get to 218.
So what happens is no one wins the speakership during that vote?
They vote all over again. It’s called “the second ballot” and if no one gets to 218, they do it again “third ballot” and so on until someone gets 218. But as the ballots go on, things get more and more contentious, other candidates jump in, things get chaotic. And the question becomes, if it’s not McCarthy, who will it be?
No speaker vote has gone to a second ballot since 1923. Exactly 100 years ago.
Read more about past contested Speaker votes here.
