November 18, 2023
More people in this country are choosing not to have kids –more people are dying earlier and immigration is – well a mess. And because of all that America will have peak population in the year 2080 – and for the first time in more than 100 years — it goes downhill from there.
Now – for some of you the thought of a population decline is a welcome thought. But for others – a declining population is not a good sign for the health of a country.
So here’s what’s going on. The Census Bureau just released its population projections – theories really – about what’s going to happen to the US population for the rest of this century. Under the most likely scenario, the US will stop growing by the year 2080 and will shrink by the year 2100.
That’s a year I never thought I’d be reporting on.
This new projection is the first time that the Census Bureau has included a population decline as part of its main outlook. The only other time the US has recorded a population decline was in 1918, when the flu pandemic and deployment of more than one million troops produced a small drop in the estimated US population.
Today – the Census Bureau can use complicated equations like these to project the expected population —- pause — I’m a journalist not a mathematician don’t ask me to explain these equations. But by using these them – the Census Bureau has come up with three different projections scenarios through the year 2100. Low, medium and high.
But here’s the thing – because of the declining birthrates and the increasing death rates in this country – the census bureau says the US population will likely have to rely on immigration to prop it up. One population scenario is based on high immigration, another on medium immigration and one is based on low immigration.
Currently the United States has 334 million residents. The Census Bureau says in the medium immigration scenario – the u-s population will reach of high of nearly 370 million residents by the year 2080 and then well dip down to 366 million by 2100.
If immigration is high – the population will hit 421 million by 2080 and 435 million by 2100.
But – in the low immigration scenario – the u-s population will be 334 million by the year 2080 and drop down to 319 million residents by the year 2100.
And the makeup of the United States – according to these projections is going to look a lot different too. With fewer babies being born – the age structure of this country shifts so there will be more adults over the age of 65 than Americans under the age of 18.
In the middle immigration scenario – the older age group surpasses the younger age group by the year 2029, in the high scenario – the crossover happens in the year 2030 and in the low immigration scenario it happens in 2029.
This report also projects what the racial makeup of this country – will be. And it’s a lot different than it is now.
If you’ve made it this far you’re probably wondering if population decline is a good thing or a bad thing. Well, it depends on who you ask.
On the bad side — a shift downward in population will likely weigh on the US economy and its geopolitical standing. Historically a country’s population size was an indicator of that country’s power on the world stage, so a declining population is not great for the country’s influence around the world. Domestically — with fewer young to support the elderly — entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare would face even greater strains then we’re already seeing. Recessions could pop up because the GDP may decline – because there are fewer people of working age producing goods and services that count towards the economic output of America – which also weakens the u-s position on the world stage.
But some say an aging population with a smaller work force is a good thing. Some countries have actually seen population declines but GDP growth. Because the per person living standards increase. The other benefit of a lower population is – it counter acts the environmental issues we’re seeing in our world and the negative effects of human overpopulation.
Read the report from the Census video here.
