Democrats or Republicans? Which party will control the House and Senate in the balance of power?

November 11, 2022

Who will control the House and Senate?

We’re still waiting on election results in three critical states. And the results will determine balance of power in both the House and the Senate.

Here’s the thing – there are very real scenarios where the Democrats keep control of both chambers, where the Republicans take over both chambers and where the power is split between the two chambers.

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Let’s start with the Senate.

You need to have 51 votes to have control. Of course Georgia is going to a run off so we won’t know those results until December 6.

That leaves us with Arizona and Nevada.

Right now, along with the Independents, the Democrats have 48 seats, and the Republicans have 49 seats. If Democrats win the Senate races in both Nevada and Arizona they get to 50. And they win the majority. Why? Because even if Republicans win Georgia it’s a 50/50 Senate and according to the constitution, the Vice President a Democrat — as president of the Senate breaks the tie.

Now, let’s run the scenario for the Republicans.

If Republicans win both Senate races in Nevada and Arizona they’re at 51. They win the majority. And Georgia then becomes less of a factor for them. If they win it, they get to 52. And if they lose it, Democrats only get to 49 that’s not the majority.

Now, if the Republicans win one of these and the Democrats win the other that would make it 50 for republicans to 49 for Democrats and to keep the Senate, the Democrats must win Georgia.

That would then make the chamber 50/50 and the Vice President can break the tie. But if Republicans win Georgia and get to 51 that leaves the Democrats with 49. Republicans take the majority.

Now the House is a different story.

To win power of the US House of Representatives you need to get 218 seats. There are several seats outstanding right now that are too close to call. But it is very possible the republicans will take over the house with only a slight majority. Which is similar to the way it’s been for the last two years where the Democrats only held a majority of 220 to 212.