March 18, 2026
There’s just too much uncertainty. And when the path is uncertain – the Federal Reserve just doesn’t make any sudden movements. They deer in headlights it and keeps interest rates steady. Which is what happened today. But perhaps more concerning is – the fed is now forecasting higher inflation in 2026 than they originally thought but why? Here’s fed chairman Jerome Powell.
But here’s what’s making that calculation to determine when the tariff inflation is going to be over — more difficult. President Trump keeps adding tariffs – even though the supreme court said his last round of tariffs was unconstitutional.
And the other key uncertainty that the fed is dealing with and will absolutely impact the US economy — is this war with Iran and the tremendous shock we’re seeing to the oil market. And how the oil market shock will impact inflation on everything else.
It’s true we’ve seen 5 years of inflation much higher than the fed’s 2% goal. And today, the Fed projected that inflation won’t get back down to 2% until 2028 at the soonest. Lots of economists have brought up the “s” word to describe the US economy. As in – stagflation – but chairman Powell takes issue with that.
At the same time Powell says he and the federal reserve board know – average Americans – like us – are hurting.
Read the Fed’s projections here.
Watch the Fed chair’s press conference here.
