February 7, 2026
The population in the United States is declining and it will likely keep declining. The US government says there’s one reason why. Can you guess what it is? I’m going to give you a few hints.
Hint number one – the time period between July 1 2024 and July 1 2025 was one of the United States’ slowest population growth in history – certainly it was the slowest since the height of the pandemic. The census bureau found that the US population grew by only 1.8 million or just 0.5%. Hint number two – what makes this slow down particularly interesting is it comes immediately after a huge uptick in population growth in 2024 – when the United States added 3.2 million people. And the third hint is it has nothing to do with the number of people who died or the number of babies born.
So what was the one reason for this dramatic population decline? According to the census bureau it was a historic decline in migration….and there’s one reason for that. President Trump’s dramatic immigration crackdown that began in January of 2025. But before I tell you all about why this may not be a good thing for the country – and explain which states actually saw an population increase– I want to thank my paid FactsHQ subscribers for voting for this story as the bonus this week. If you want to vote on next week’s bonus story or get access to other cool perks from me like my special deep dive videos and private live events, make sure you follow these easy steps and become a paid subscriber too. The only reason why I am able to report the news for you every single day is because of the generosity of my awesome paid FactsHQ subscribers. Without them this channel would disappear. So if you want to help support my work – and if you can, please consider becoming a paid subscriber.
Ok – so the Census Bureau says there are now there is a total of nearly 342 million people living in the United States. (341.8 m). Between July 2024 and July 2025 immigration increased the US population by just 1.3 million. That is a significant 54% decline in 2024 net migration. The census bureau says if these trends continue by July of 2026 — net migration is projected to be just 321,000 and if it continues after that the census bureau says we would see net negative migration for the first time in more than 50 years. Now – its very important to know that the census bureau does not distinguish between legal and illegal immigration. It’s all counted the same way.
As I mentioned – President Trump’s maximum immigration enforcement is largely why this is happening – but maybe not the way you think. Yes – trump is removing people from the country – but experts say what’s really causing this slow down in net migration is that people who would have wanted to come to the United States are watching what’s happening on the streets of America and are deciding not to come or they do want to come but getting a visa is next to impossible. Now – there are two sides to this immigration coin that you need to understand. Yes – it’s true that the migrant surge under President Biden strained some social services in some parts of the country so – in theory — with fewer migrants it may free up some of those services for other people…but it’s also true that immigrants overall make a huge contributions to our economy including by starting their own businesses and creating jobs for Americans which then increases the tax revenue.
The other thing you have to understand about population growth is the United States needs a large population of young, healthy workers and taxpayers to fund care for the older generations of Americans. But as I’ve been reporting for years – the birthrate in this country has been trending down. So migration has really been keeping the population growth rate in the u-s in positive territory.
That means if we really do end up seeing negative migration the way the census bureau is predicting –and the birthrate doesn’t dramatically increase…then we could all kinds of problems including lower growth for the US economy which then weakens our power on the world stage.
But it’s not all doom and gloom. The census bureau says all but five states saw population increases. Fun fact – the census bureau says South Carolina is the fastest growing state with nearly 80-thousand (79,958) new residents between July 2024 and July 2025. Coming in at number two for the fastest growing state? Idaho which added nearly 29,000 new residents (28,861). The five states that saw population declines included West Virginia, Vermont, new Mexico, Hawaii and California…but just barely…the census bureau found California only lost about 1500 people (1535) but California still has the most people by far with more than 39.3 million people (39,355,309)
More about population in 2024/2025 from the Census Bureau here.
More about net migration growth decline here.
See where your state lands on the population list here.
