October 14, 2025
Today marks two weeks of this government shutdown and neither the republicans nor democrats are changing their positions or even attempting to reopen it. But — we are also about two weeks away from another deadline that – in theory – may force the two sides to reach a deal, not because that’s how it’s supposed to work….because it could be a political disaster in the midterm election if they don’t.
Ok – so by now you know this government shutdown is largely happening because of this fight over the affordable care act healthcare premium subsidies that are set to expire at the end of this year unless congress passes a new law to extend them. If those subsidies actually do expire – as I have been reporting since the summer — healthcare costs for more than 24 million Americans will skyrocket. Democrats want Republicans to agree to a permanent extension of those subsidies. Republicans are split – a large percentage of them say no way – these subsidies are way too expensive for the u-s government and they want them to go away and the rest of the Republicans say we got time — we may be willing to negotiate on the ACA subsidies but only *after* Democrats agree to reopen the government. But the problem is – there’s not a lot of time left — on November 1st –just about two weeks from now – open enrollment starts for everyone who wants to get health insurance next year through the ACA and if the law doesn’t change – like now – millions of Americans are going to be hit with ..a.. Sticker shock they are not prepared for and may end up being forced to get rid of their health insurance all together because they can’t afford it.
But here’s the twist– while a large percentage of Republicans want these subsidies – and maybe even the entire ACA – to go away — it turns out according to the kaiser family foundation – that may be a political problem for them – because 80% of all those premium ACA subsidies are going to states that were won by President Trump in 2024. 80%! That translates to nearly 19 million people who are getting $115 billion dollars in government subsidies and also happen to be republican voters. I got another one for you –the kaiser family foundation also found — the only two states that have ACA recipients receiving on average more than $1000 a month in subsidies – are West Virginia and Alaska – both ruby red states. Oh – and the state that receives the most money all together for these premium ACA subsidies is florida – which also is a state Trump won in 2024. They get more than $31.7 billion dollars a year in ACA subsidies!
To be clear – these subsidies are the enhanced subsidies that were approved by congress in 2021 and are given to qualifying low and middle income people who do not receive health insurance through their employer or another government program. These are small business owners and their employees, farmers, ranchers and those who are self-employed. And *no* by law immigrants who are in this country illegally do not even qualify for ACA coverage and certainly do not qualify for these enhanced subsidies.
Of course red states are not the only states with a-c-a participants getting this premium subsidy – recipients who qualify for the subsidy live in every state. You can see – every state on this map gets a subsidy. The darker the blue – the more subsidy is awarded per a-c-a recipient.
So – those are the facts and the numbers. Now – let’s put our political hats on for and think about this for just a second. Traditionally Republicans hate the ACA – which is the same thing as Obamacare in case you’re wondering. Remember Trump made it his whole campaign slogan when he first ran for president in 2015…back then he was all about “repeal and replace?” Well – the ACA was never repealed nor was it replaced because with all its flaws – it’s extremely popular and so are these subsidies. So now – Republicans have a choice to make. Either they can negotiate these subsidies with Democrats, get the government back open and help their own constituents – who we just established are the vast majority of the people in this country who receive these ACA subsidies and are going to be affected. Or they can stick to their position, not negotiate with Democrats on these subsidies and the government will stay shutdown *and* millions of their own voters will be slammed with skyrocketing healthcare costs which means millions of them will likely be without health insurance next year. Whatever decision they make will likely have an impact on the upcoming midterm election.
Read the data from the KFF here.
Map of ACA premium subsidies by state here.
