August 23, 2024
This has been the worst kept political secret all week. Robert Kennedy Jr. suspended his presidential campaign, just formally endorsed former President Donald Trump for president again and suggested if Trump wins, he would join his administration.
There’s a lot to unpack here. So let’s take it one issue at a time.
First – the significance of a Kennedy supporting a Republican is huge. Given the Kennedy family history and legacy in the Democratic party. Right? That’s a big deal. And he is using the term “suspended” instead of “ended” when describing his campaign. You should know that’s the term most politicians use when they decide to stop actively going through the motions of campaign.
Second – it’s important to note – just because Kennedy dropped out today – doesn’t mean his name won’t appear on some ballots. In the states where he already qualified – his name will likely stay there. You’ll probably see his name on the ballot in almost two dozen states. However – he said today – because he would become a spoiler and that may help Vice President Harris win — he is beginning the process now of removing his name from the swing states. And that leads me to the last important thing you have to understand about how this is going to impact the election.
As I have been reporting for months this presidential election is going to be extremely close. The candidate who ends up in the white house will be decided on the margins – basically it’s going to come down to a few hundred thousand voters in a few key swing states.
So – how does support for RFK Jr. factor into that? Well, just a few months ago Kennedy was polling nationwide in some cases – in the double digits. Keep in mind – no third-party candidate has won one single electoral vote since 1968. So that high poll number was rare and significant at the time. But lots of political analysts suggested it was so high because a large part of the electorate were so called “double haters.” They didn’t like trump and they didn’t like Biden. So Kennedy became a good option. But just before President Biden dropped out research and polling showed Kennedy’s numbers were slipping but then after Biden dropped out lots of those double hater Kennedy supporters switched from supporting Kennedy to supporting Harris. There was also a portion who switched from Kennedy to Trump. But Kennedy retained about some of his original support. And because of that his polling numbers dropped from those double digits to anywhere between 2 and 6% depending on what state you’re looking at.
And that’s where this endorsement comes in to play. 2-6% doesn’t sound like a lot but like I said already, this race is going to come down to the margins. So what happens with that 2-6% could be important. Obviously just because Kennedy endorsed trump does not mean all of his supporters will automatically vote for trump. That’s now how that works. There’s a possibility that a large number will go to Trump’s side but some may go to Harris, some may sit out this election and others may actually end up voting for Kennedy because his name is still on the ballot.
