December 6, 2023
It’s official.
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy says he’s leaving congress. Not at the end of his term in January of 2025. But at the end of this year – that’s in like 3 weeks!
Now – this republican vacancy is actually not going to impact the house republicans in the same way as the santos expulsion did. And I’m going to show you why with the math in a second…but first.
This was the worst kept secret in DC, lots of people have been loudly speculating McCarthy as going to go — but still it’s shocking fall for the California Republican who – was at the height of his power just a few months ago.
I know you want to see the math – so here we go.
Right now –
There are 434 members of the United States house of Representatives instead of 435. Because last week the Republicans expelled George Santos who was a Republican.
Today — the Republicans have the majority with 221 members and Democrats have 213.
In order for the Speaker to get a Republican priority bill passed through the House – if everyone is present and voting and assuming zero Democrats are going to vote yes – he will need 218 yes votes. That means his margin is only 3 votes. That means if 3 Republicans vote no – he can still get the bill passed.
So – in January of 2024 when McCarthy – another republican leaves his seat that will move the total members of the house to 433 and bring the house Republican majority to 220. Now – in the same scenario where every member is present and voting and the Democrats are saying no – the math changes. The threshold to get a bill passed moves down by one to 217. That’s because the total number of members has moved down to 433. So again if everyone is present and voting the House Speaker has that same 3 vote margin.
So what’s going to happen to McCarthy’s seat?
Same thing as Santos’s seat – in California the law says the governor must within 14 days schedule a date for a special election to fill McCarthy’s seat. And that special election must happen within 140 days.
Now – the 20th district of California where McCarthy has served is a newly redistricted seat – but if you look at the voting patterns in the area — both Democrats and Republicans have been elected. So this is not a guaranteed victory for republicans.
Read McCarthy’s announcement in the Wall Street Journal here.
